South African Regulators Face Pressure Over Offshore Prediction Markets

South Africa does not currently have a dedicated licence for prediction-market operators.

This creates uncertainty over whether provincial gambling authorities can regulate these services through existing betting laws. Prediction markets usually allow users to take opposing positions on an event, with the operator providing the platform and collecting a fee.

That model differs from traditional bookmaking, where the operator sets the odds and accepts the financial risk attached to each wager. However, SABA maintains that the end product still involves staking money on an uncertain outcome.

The association believes operators should not be able to avoid gambling requirements by presenting their services as information markets or forecasting products. It has called for a wider review involving gambling law, financial regulation and election-related legislation.

Until clearer rules are introduced, SABA’s view is that offshore prediction markets should not be permitted to target South African users.

The debate is not limited to licensing.

SABA has also raised concerns about the potential effect of prediction markets on the integrity of sport and public decision-making. A market linked to a sporting failure, political outcome or official appointment could create an incentive for individuals with inside information to profit from events they may be able to influence.

Sports betting operators in regulated markets are subject to monitoring and reporting requirements intended to identify suspicious activity. Prediction markets operating from outside South Africa may not be connected to the same local systems.

There are also concerns around financial crime. Some offshore platforms support crypto-asset payments and allow users from several countries to trade against one another. This can make it more difficult for local authorities to trace transactions, obtain customer records or enforce anti-money laundering controls.

These risks could potentially be managed under a formal regulatory system, but SABA argues that the required safeguards are not yet in place.

The absence of local licensing may also leave South African users with limited options when disputes arise.

Regulated gambling companies are expected to follow responsible gambling rules, offer formal complaints procedures and comply with advertising and self-exclusion requirements. Offshore prediction markets may not provide access to the same protections.

There is also an economic concern. Operators based outside the country can generate revenue from South African users without necessarily paying local gambling taxes or contributing towards domestic responsible gambling initiatives.

SABA has therefore recommended that prediction markets be treated as a form of exchange betting, with any future licensing framework covering taxation, customer verification, financial monitoring, market integrity and player protection.

For South African players, the current uncertainty makes it important to consider how and where a gambling platform is regulated before depositing. A reviewed selection of online casinos can help players identify established options that are designed for the South African market and offer clearer information about payments, terms and responsible gambling controls.