Rugby Betting in South Africa: Currie Cup, URC & Springboks

If you have ever looked at odds on a South African bookmaker’s site, you will notice that they are written in decimal format. In SA, decimal odds are the norm. In other countries and regions, you may see fractional odds and other types of odds, but decimal odds are standard with SA bookies.

If you’re not used to these odds, let’s take a hypothetical example and break it down so you understand it. It is really quite simple once you get the hang of it. Let’s say you see the odds 1.80 next to a team, it simply means that for every R1 that you bet, you will get back R1.80 if your bet wins and this includes the original R1 that you wagered (so the profit is R0.80). Likewise, if you see odds of 2.20, it means that for every R1 you wager, you will receive R2.20 if your bet wins.

Every published odd also tells you what the implied probability of that bet winning is. For example, for odds of 1.80, the implied probability can be calculated by dividing 1 by the odds. So, 1 divided by 1.80 = 0.55 = 55% chance of that outcome transpiring. In the case of 2.20, it will be 1 divided by 2.20 = 0.454 = 45.5% implied probability.

Handicap betting is basically something that comes into play when the two teams playing are not so equally matched and one team is much stronger. In such cases, the bookies could give the weaker side a bit of a push in order to make the teams seem more evenly matched, at least in terms of odds. That is basically what people mean when they say the line has been “set.”

Let us use an example. The Stormers are playing the Bulls and the bookmaker lists Stormers −6.5 and Bulls +6.5, both at 1.90. What this means is that before the match even starts, the Bulls are treated as if they already lead by 6.5 points. For your bet on the Stormers to win, they need to win the match by 7 or more points. If they win by fewer than 7 or lose, your bet loses. If you bet on the Bulls +6.5, you win as long as they either win the match outright or lose by 6 or fewer points.

When you see −6.5 or +6.5, that half point, called the “hook,” exists for one reason, which is to make sure there can be no draw on the line. If the line were −6 instead of −6.5 and the team won by exactly 6 points, that would be called a “push” and your stake would be refunded.

You also get what are called alternative handicaps. These are just different versions of the same line. For instance, instead of −6.5, you can take −3.5 or −9.5, depending on how confident you are. The odds change with the line. If you “buy points,” you move the handicap in your favour but get lower odds. If you “sell points,” you take on more risk for a better price.

To make sense of how handicaps translate to actual rugby scores, remember the value of each scoring play. A try is 5 points, a conversion is 2 and a penalty or drop goal is 3. That means a converted try is a 7-point swing, which is why handicaps like 6.5 and 7.5 are so common. They are premised on one converted try.

The totals market or what most punters call the Over/Under, is probably the simplest rugby market there is and is easy to comprehend. Instead of betting on who wins, you are betting on how many points will be scored in total by both sides. The bookmaker sets a certain number (line) and you decide if the actual match score will go over that number or under it. That is all there is to it.

For example, a match between the Sharks and Bulls may have a total set at 47.5 points with odds of 1.87 on both sides. If you bet on Over 47.5, you win if the combined score of both teams reaches 48 or more. If you bet on Under 47.5, you win if it stays at 47 or less. That half-point again exists so that there is no chance of a tie. Team totals work on the same idea but only cover one side. If the Stormers line is 24.5, you are betting on whether the Stormers themselves score 25 or more or stay below 25. Live totals or in-play totals are where the line can be adjusted by the bookie as the match goes on and you can place your bet while the game is actually being played.

The winning margin market is pretty simple and instead of betting on who wins, you are betting on how much they win by and that’s all there is to it.

The most common versions are 1–12 and 13+. If you take Team A 1–12, you are saying that Team A will win the match, but by a margin of anywhere between one and twelve points. If they win by more than twelve, your bet loses even though they won the game. The 13+ option means the winning side must win by 13 or more for that bet to win.

Now, why use this instead of a handicap? The main reason is that margin segments usually give better value. Let’s say the Springboks are −7.5 favourites against Scotland. The handicap is tight, but if you think they will still win, just not by a big gap, the 1–12 band can actually pay better than the straight win market.

You can also find an exact margin market, where you choose a single winning difference, like South Africa to win by 7. That is harder to get right, of course, but pays very well if you do get it right.

Once you get comfortable with the main rugby markets, like handicaps and totals, you will notice a few extra options listed below the main ones on most South African bookmakers’ websites. These are called props or specials and they have to do with smaller things that happen within the match rather than the final score itself. They can be quite fun to bet on, but also kind of tricky in some cases and they could also pay really well sometimes.

The first one most people try is the first-try scorer market. You pick a player you think will score the first try of the game and that’s basically it. The odds are high because it is hard to predict, but if you follow team patterns and positions, you can make an educated call. Wingers and fullbacks are usually the best options since they finish moves more often than forwards. The anytime try scorer market is similar, but just that the player you pick has to score in the game and does not necessarily have to be the first one to do so.

Then there is the method of first scoring play, which simply is where you predict how the first points will come through. Will it be a try, a penalty or a drop goal? In certain matches, penalties are the most common start, while games that are not so tight usually begin with a try.

Some bookmakers also offer props on cards, both yellow and red. Rugby’s discipline rules are strict and certain referees are known for showing cards early. This is a market where it pays to check who the referee is of course, for obvious reasons.

Live betting, or what a lot of people call in-play betting, refers to the feature where online bookmakers allow you to place bets on rugby matches that have already kicked off and are yet to conclude. Once a rugby match kicks off, the bookmaker keeps updating the lines and odds every few minutes based on what’s happening on the field as time goes on. A penalty, a yellow card, a missed kick and all such things result in the numbers being adjusted continuously.

When you watch a game live, you will observe a few things that could have been very difficult to predict before kickoff, and this is why some experienced bettors prefer to watch the game for a little while and then decide what they are going to bet on.

Bin minutes are a big deal in rugby. When a player is sent off for ten minutes, it can really turn a game on its head. The other thing to keep in mind is latency. The feed you are watching and the feed the bookmaker uses are not always in sync, and there could be a delay of a few seconds or even a minute or so in some cases.

If you want to win in rugby betting, you need some kind of system or strategy, so to speak. No system is going to be perfect, but they will provide more structure and consistency, and following such systems will keep you from reacting hastily and making emotional decisions that aren’t going to be great for your pocket. When it comes to betting, it is all about numbers and math and some luck, so use a strategy that is logical, mathematically sound and gives you the best odds, especially in the long run. Even the best bettors lose bets, but what they do well is win more bets than they lose in the long run and this is usually because they have crafted out a nuanced system for themselves and they stick to it and keep refining it with time and experience.

The first thing to do is define your bankroll and figure out how you want to bet over a given period of time. You want to choose an amount that will not affect you if you lose it completely. Next, you will break down that amount into smaller units and a common rule of thumb is to never wager more than 2% of your bankroll in a single bet. You know how you don’t put all your eggs in one basket, right? Another simple rule of thumb is not to increase your bet right after you lose a bet, in an attempt to make up for it – this is one of the quickest ways to burn a hole in your pocket.

It is also a good idea to spec out a pre-match checklist for yourself as a rugby bettor. It should include things like – check the confirmed line-ups, check the weather, have any of the teams been travelling and could they be fatigued? Etc.

Then, there is also data. Some bettors get too deep into the data, but the trick is to find a balance between data and intuition. You, of course, want to consider data/stats such as possession, territory, penalties conceded, etc., because these can easily reveal a pattern and help you make better bets. And finally, record everything. Write down your bets, the odds and what the price closed at later. You will start seeing how often you beat the market. Basically, by doing this, you are building your own data set and eventually, you will have enough data to drastically improve your strategy by tightening up any loose ends and doing more of what gets you profits – which is what recording everything will reveal with time.

Here are a couple of practical examples for you to understand more clearly:

Everyone slips up. Winners just stop repeating the same rugby betting mistakes.

Responsible Gambling or betting is something everyone should be aware of and practice. With online betting, it is easy to lose control and bet more than you can afford. Because online betting is so easily accessible and can be done 24 hours a day, many bettors become habitual gamblers and it starts affecting their lives and finances, and some can even go into bad debt because of this. So, you should only treat betting as entertainment and not try to make an income out of it or cover up for losses by betting more. If you feel you or someone you know has a compulsive gambling problem, you should reach out to professional organizations such as SARGF, the National Gambling Board, etc.